Depending on which source you look at, it’s between five and a half to eight days until the Bitcoin halving takes place, so in rough terms about a week. But how does the halving of Bitcoin affect the crypto market? That’s what we’re going to discuss today.
The halving of the number of Bitcoin obtained from mining is adjusted approximately every four years, or after 210,000 blocks have been mined. Just after mid-April 2024 is an important event because then the halving should occur again. Historically, the entire market for crypto-currencies has had a big boost after the halving, but what is in sight for 2024?
In some ways, everything looks a little different economically right now with higher than normal inflation in the last decade, with some concerns about US government debt, with a more turbulent geopolitical situation than in a long time and with relatively high asset prices for at least real estate. But we are still a little bit away from the peak of this cycle of both the Bitcoin price and crypto prices in general. Normally, prices go higher and higher with each cycle, so no one will be surprised if Bitcoin reaches $100,000 before the summer – or before 2024 is over. But first of all, let’s look at how the price of Bitcoin has moved this year.
How has the Bitcoin price moved since New Year’s Day 2024?
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BTC stood at 42,220 USD at the beginning of the year. We measure in dollars, because it is still the largest currency and will probably remain so as long as the US is the world’s hegemon.
On January 23, 2024, Bitcoin dropped to 39,500 USD, before picking up again. On March 14, 2024, it reached a new ATH in dollars, 73,097 USD. Since then, we have gone sideways or slightly downwards. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading between 70 and 71,000 USD. There could be a breakout upwards or downwards at any time. If the breakout occurs before the halving, my personal guess is that we can see falling prices, while after the halving it is more likely to have a slow but sure upward phase again – with new ATH in sight. What do you think? Try trading Bitcoin at low spreads from a reliable trading partner.
Will history repeat itself: What happens after the Bitcoin halving?
By looking at how the Bitcoin price moved in the past during periods approaching the halving and looking at the peaks a year later, we get some insight into the movement patterns. Let’s start with the first halving period:
On November 28, 2012, the first Bitcoin halving took place. This means that the block rewards for those mining BTC decreased from 50 to 25 bitcoin. At this time, not many people knew about the largest cryptocurrency.
Price before: 12-14 USD.
Highest price in 2013: 1152 USD.
The second halving took place in the summer of 2016, or on July 16th to be more precise. As always, the Bitcoin dividend per block was halved from 25 to 12.5.
Price before: 665 USD.
Highest price in 2017: 17,760 USD.
On May 11, 2020, the third Bitcoin halving took place and now the payout decreased to 6.25 BTC from the previous 12.5. The price of Bitcoin had almost halved from the previous peak in 2017 and was just below 10k USD. Although the halving and subsequent period occurred during the Covid-19 pandemic when much of the economy was at a standstill, the same pattern as before was followed.
Price before: 9732 USD.
Highest price in 2021: 67,549 USD.
The fourth halving will take place just after institutional investors have started pumping money into Bitcoin ETFs, which has probably had some effect on the price. But now the main question is whether Bitcoin will rise like it did before after the halving, something that has never failed before. The only thing we know is that each block will be worth 3.125 BTC after the 4th halving. The rest we leave to the future to determine.
Price before: Between 70,000 and 71,000 USD.
Highest price in 2025: Remains to be seen!
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How to celebrate the Bitcoin halving?
There is only a Bitcoin halving every four years, but now it’s time again. Several events are happening around the world.
One of the big parties is the European Halving Party in Warsaw. This is the second part of the same event, the Bitcoin Film Festival. This part is not only about movies. There are also discussion panels, the opportunity to pitch your Bitcoin movie and workshops where you can learn more about filmmaking.
