Bitcoin (BTC) Price Estimate August 2023 – Rise or Fall?

Bitcoin (BTC) has surged past the $30,000 mark again this week, reaching an intraday high of $30,222.

Crypto bulls seem to be feeling more confident the last several days due to a mix of macroeconomic and crypto-specific factors.

Today, Crypto Lists will discuss Bitcoin (BTC) price estimates from a technical and fundamental analysis perspective.

Please note that there are also many other factors to consider when entering a position, such as your time horizon, willingness to risk, and how much margin you have if trading with leverage.

SEC will likely give the green light for Bitcoin ETFs

Investor sentiment has improved a little bit this trading week; Bitcoin (BTC) has surged above the $30,000 level, and the assets in the crypto space have begun to regain their footing. Some analysts say that Bitcoin open interest is now at its highest level since the FTX collapse, which is connected with a mix of macroeconomic and crypto-specific factors.

Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said this week that the Fed could be nearing the end of its current rate-hiking cycle, and historically, more lenient monetary policies have often been favorable for riskier assets like cryptocurrencies. At the same time, there are growing speculations around the first Bitcoin ETF approval in the U.S. and according to Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, the approval may not be far off.

Citing his sources at BlackRock and Invesco, Mike Novogratz stated that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)  will likely give the green light for these Bitcoin ETFs within the next four to six months.

“Our contacts from the Invesco side and from the BlackRock side gets you to think that this is a question of when, not if, that the outside window this is probably six months. The Spot Bitcoin ETF application by BlackRock, which happens to be the largest asset manager, has sparked a positive sentiment from institutional investors towards the foremost cryptocurrency.”

 

– Galaxy Digital CEO, Mike Novogratz

Bitcoin whales opened long positions at $29k

The SEC approval of such ETFs would significantly boost demand for Bitcoin, which will positively influence the price of Bitcoin and many other cryptocurrencies. Starting early Tuesday, Bitcoin’s price advanced by more than 3.5%, breaking the $30,000 mark for the second time this month, and it is important to say that Bitcoin whales earlier opened giga-long positions at $29k.

When whales increase their trading activity, it usually indicates that they are getting confidence in the underlying coin’s short-term price prospects. If the whales continue to buy Bitcoin even more, the price of Bitcoin could have an even bigger jump in the upcoming weeks.

According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin Open Interest (OI), a metric that measures the total number of outstanding futures that have not been settled, saw a significant jump, increasing by over $1 billion in less than 24 hours. A surge in OI indicates heightened interest in Bitcoin which can lead to further price increases of the flagship cryptocurrency.

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Technical analysis for Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin (BTC) has advanced approximately 6% since August 01, 2023, rising from $28,477 to a high of $30,222. The current price of Bitcoin (BTC) stands at $29,441, which is still more than 35% off from its 2022 highs that were registered in March. The chart below shows that Bitcoin (BTC) has been moving in a strong downtrend since November 2021, and even with the current jump, BTC remains under pressure when we look at a “bigger” picture.

Important support & resistance levels for Bitcoin (BTC)

On this chart (the period from February 2023), I marked important support and resistance levels that can help traders to understand where the price could move. Bitcoin (BTC) bulls seem to be feeling more confident last several days, and if the price advances above $32,000, the next target could be resistance that stands at $34,000.

The important support level is $28,000, and if the price breaks this level, it would be a “SELL” signal, and we have the open way to $27,000. If the price drops below $26,000, which represents another strong support, the next target could be located around $25,000.

What speaks for the rise in the Bitcoin (BTC) price

Bitcoin, which now comprises nearly 50% of the crypto market, is trading nearly 20% up from June 15 lows of $24,750, and if the price advances above the resistance that stands at $32,000, the next target could be around $34,000.

One of the reasons behind this jump is the fact that investment firms BlackRock and Invesco applied to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a Bitcoin ETF, and according to analysts, these applications have “good odds” of getting U.S. regulatory approval within the next four to six months.

What indicates further downfall for Bitcoin (BTC)

Timothy Peterson, founder and investment manager at Cane Island Alternative Advisors, said that despite the current jump, Bitcoin could easily end up below $25,000 next month. Bitcoin has an important support level at $28,000, and a break below this level would indicate that BTC could probably test the important support level that stands at $25,000. The highly volatile nature of the cryptocurrencies may scare investors again to sell BTC if some negative news happens in the cryptocurrency market – like BlackRock didn’t get the SEC approval or a prominent crypto firm going bankrupt.

What do analysts and experts say?

Bitcoin (BTC) has surged past the $30,000 mark again this week, reaching an intraday high of $30,222, and the main question is, does it have more bullish strength left, which depends on both technical and fundamental factors.

Growing speculations around the first Bitcoin ETF approval in the U.S. is certainly positive news for the flagship cryptocurrency, and according to Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, the approval may not be far off. Mike Novogratz stated that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will likely give the green light for the first Bitcoin ETFs within the next four to six months.

The high volume of trading activity demonstrates renewed interest and confidence in Bitcoin, and there are expectations that more institutional investors could purchase Bitcoin in the weeks ahead.

The overall sentiment on the cryptocurrency market also plays a crucial role in Bitcoin’s price trajectory, and the good news is that the cryptocurrency market remains supported after the latest data from the U.S. showed that inflation cooled more than expected in June, which increased confidence among investors and offered reasonable hopes that the Fed might be about to kick its rate-hike habit.

Disclaimer: Crypto is extremely volatile and not suitable for everyone to invest in. Never speculate with money that you cannot afford to lose. The information on this site is presented for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment or financial advice.