Bitcoin (BTC) Price Estimate July 2023 – Rise or Fall?

Bitcoin (BTC) has weakened from $31,050 to $24,750 since April 14, 2023, and the current price stands at $26,540. However, crypto bulls seem to be feeling more confident last several days due to a mix of technical and fundamental factors.

Growing speculations around the first Bitcoin ETF approval in the U.S. helped the crypto market bounce, but it is still unclear what we can expect from July 2023.

Today, Crypto Lists will discuss Bitcoin (BTC) price estimates from a technical and fundamental analysis perspective. Please note that there are also many other factors to consider when entering a position, such as your time horizon, willingness to risk, and how much margin have got if trading with leverage.

Investment firm BlackRock applies for ETF approval

Investor sentiment has improved a little bit last several days, and the assets in the crypto space have begun to regain their footing due to a mix of technical and fundamental factors. According to analysts, one of the reasons behind this recovery is the fact that BlackRock, an investment firm that manages more than $9 trillion in assets, applied to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a Bitcoin ETF on July 16.

Growing speculations around the first Bitcoin ETF approval in the U.S. helped the crypto market bounce, and it is important to say that throughout its history, BlackRock has applied for 576 ETFs, facing only one rejection.

The cryptocurrency market capitalization has risen by nearly 5% since the BlackRock application, and analysts are predicting that an SEC approval could have the asset manager of  BlackRock purchase every single Bitcoin available across crypto exchanges. Market analyst Lark Davis said:

“Only about 10% of all Bitcoin (worth $50 billion) is sitting on exchanges. 0.5% of BlackRock money movings to BTC would buy every single coin available.”

Adam Cochran, a partner at venture capital firm Cinneamhain Ventures, said that BlackRock’s offering has “good odds” of getting U.S. regulatory approval, but every investment and trading move involves risk, and everybody should conduct their own research when making a decision. Major cryptocurrency tracker Whale Alert reported this Sunday that on Friday, a massive Bitcoin lump of 10,000 BTC was shoveled into a brand-new wallet with no registered owner. This could indicate either a purchase or a whale setting aside some of his BTC stash to redistribute the crypto holdings.

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SEC approval would certainly positively influence the price

The SEC approval would certainly positively influence the price of Bitcoin and many other cryptocurrencies; still, investors should keep in mind that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has rejected all Bitcoin ETF applications recently, including those from asset managers like VanEck, Ark Invest, and Bitwise.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission continues with efforts to bring crypto operators within the U.S. under the same regulatory framework that governs the sale of all sorts of securities — to treat cryptocurrencies much like stocks and bonds.

Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode reported this Sunday that the amount of Bitcoin held on cryptocurrency exchanges has just plummeted to a three-month low. According to data from Glassnode, Bitcoin balance on exchanges dipped to 2,281,978.198 BTC, which is slightly below the previous low of 2,282,204.204 BTC observed on June 17.

Maybe this should not be a reason to expect another selloff on the cryptocurrency market, but it could be an indication of growing uncertainty among investors following recent regulatory moves against some major players in the crypto space. Binance and Coinbase are the world’s two largest cryptocurrency exchanges, and both have faced lawsuits from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

It is still uncertain what will come of the lawsuits, but this situation sparked anxiety among crypto investors, causing a shift of Bitcoin holdings away from exchanges, potentially into private wallets for safekeeping. The cryptocurrency market remains extremely volatile, and traders should keep in mind that the crypto selloffs could gather speed if Bitcoin falls again below the $25,000 mark.

Technical analysis for Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin (BTC) has advanced approximately 8% since June 15, 2023, rising from $24,750 to a high of $26,783. The current price of Bitcoin (BTC) stands at $26,540, which is still more than 40% off from its 2022 highs that were registered in March. The chart below shows that Bitcoin (BTC) has been moving in a strong downtrend since November 2021, and even with the current jump, BTC remains under pressure when we look at a “bigger” picture.

Important support & resistance levels for Bitcoin (BTC)

On this chart (the period from January 2023), I marked important support and resistance levels that can help traders to understand where the price could move. Bitcoin (BTC) bulls seem to be feeling more confident last several days, and if the price advances again above $28,000, the next target could be resistance that stands at $30,000. The important support level is $25,000, and if the price breaks this level, it would be a “SELL” signal, and we have the open way to $23,000. If the price drops below $23,000, which represents another strong support, the next target could be located around $20,000.

What speaks for the rise in the Bitcoin (BTC) price

Bitcoin, which now comprises nearly 50% of the crypto market, is trading nearly 8% up from June 15 lows of $24,750, and if the price advances above the resistance that stands at $28,000, the next target could be around $30,000. One of the reasons behind this jump is the fact that investment firm BlackRock applied to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a Bitcoin ETF, and according to analysts, BlackRock’s application has “good odds” of getting U.S. regulatory approval.

What indicates further downfall for Bitcoin (BTC)

The price of Bitcoin is currently trading above $26,000, but a break below this level would indicate that BTC could probably test the important support level that stands at $25,000. The highly volatile nature of the cryptocurrencies may scare investors again to sell BTC if some negative news happens in the cryptocurrency market – like BlackRock didn’t get the SEC approval or a prominent crypto firm going bankrupt.

What do analysts and experts say?

From a recent low of $24,750 on June 15, Bitcoin (BTC) jumped to a high of $26,783 on June 17, an 8% gain within a short time. The main question is, does it have more bullish strength left, which depends on both technical and fundamental factors.

Growing speculations around the first Bitcoin ETF approval in the U.S. is certainly positive news for the flagship cryptocurrency, and according to Adam Cochran, a partner at venture capital firm Cinneamhain Ventures, BlackRock’s offering has “good odds” of getting U.S. regulatory approval.

For now, bulls control the price movement of Bitcoin, but the highly volatile nature of the cryptocurrencies may scare investors again to sell BTC if some negative news happens in the cryptocurrency market.

Disclaimer: Crypto is extremely volatile and not suitable for everyone to invest in. Never speculate with money that you cannot afford to lose. The information on this site is presented for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment or financial advice.