Bitcoin (BTC) Price Estimate June 2024 – Rise or Fall?

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met analysts’ expectations last week by maintaining the benchmark federal funds rate within the existing range of 5.25% to 5.50%. However, the positive news is that United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data came in lower than forecast and the year-on-year figure of 3.3% showed a slowdown from the previous pace of 3.4%.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) performance underscores the market’s volatility and challenges and despite an initial optimistic outlook driven by softer inflation data, the leading cryptocurrency has experienced significant declines. According to Coinglass data, nearly $214.2 million in leveraged derivatives trading positions across all crypto assets were liquidated in the past 24 hours. Last seven days total liquidations have exceeded $900 million.

So where is the price of Bitcoin (BTC) going next, and what can we expect from the rest of June 2024?

Today, Crypto Lists will discuss Bitcoin (BTC) price estimates from a technical and fundamental analysis perspective. Please note that there are also many other factors to consider when entering a position, such as your time horizon, willingness to risk, and how much margin you have if trading with leverage.

Investor sentiment has worsened again

Investor sentiment in the cryptocurrency market worsened last trading week, Bitcoin (BTC) briefly plummeted to the $65,000 level, causing assets across the crypto space to lose their footing. The Federal Reserve projected last Wednesday only one rate cut for this year, fewer than previously forecasted which dampened investor hopes for a looser monetary policy this summer despite softer inflation data. At the same time, political uncertainty in Europe, especially the snap election in France, strengthened the US dollar which rose to its highest level in over a month, adding more selling pressure on Bitcoin.

During periods of a strengthening dollar, investors are usually drawn to higher yields or lower volatility in dollar-denominated assets, making them more attractive than riskier options like Bitcoin and tech stocks. Increased selling from Bitcoin miners and profit-taking by long-term holders around the $70K mark weighed on the market and other major cryptos like Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Avalanche (AVAX), Cardano (ADA), and Near (NEAR) saw declines ranging from 10% to 20% over the past seven days.

Coinglass data shows that nearly $214.2 million in leveraged derivatives trading positions across all crypto assets were liquidated in the past 24 hours and over the last seven days, total liquidations have surpassed $900 million. Bitcoin investor Murad Mahmudov outlined two potential scenarios for Bitcoin in the upcoming weeks and he said that if the price stays above $60,000, the bull market could continue in line with the typical four-year cycle. However, depending on macroeconomic conditions, a global recession could drive Bitcoin’s price down and Murad Mahmudov warned that breaking through the $60,000 support level could lead to further declines.

The same opinion has a popular trading veteran Peter Brandt who said that a drop below $60,000 might see Bitcoin reaching $48,000. Meanwhile, market analyst Bob Loukas took a more moderate stance, predicting a period of consolidation similar to what was observed last summer. He emphasizes the possibility of a repeated pattern, suggesting that patience might be required as the market stabilizes.

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Trump promised to end Biden’s ‘war on crypto’

Analysts at blockchain analytics firm Santiment noted heightened fear among investors as Bitcoin’s price recently dropped to $65,000 and they agree that the price direction will largely depend on macroeconomic factors and shifts in investor sentiment. However, a bit of positive sentiment emerged when former U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he would end what he describes as President Joe Biden’s “war on crypto” if re-elected.

This promise was made during a special address in West Palm Beach, Florida, on June 14, and according to crypto analysts, this statement underscores his intention to foster a crypto-friendly environment within the United States, particularly in Florida, which has a reputation as one of the most crypto-loving and crypto-friendly states. Trump has previously criticized Biden’s approach to cryptocurrencies on multiple occasions and Trump’s vision for crypto was further emphasized during a dinner at Mar-a-Lago on June 11, where Trump met with several Bitcoin miners.

According to David Pan’s report for Bloomberg News, Trump voiced strong support for the cryptocurrency sector during the meeting, emphasizing the crucial role of Bitcoin miners in stabilizing the energy grid. This endorsement is significant, especially at a time when the industry is under intense scrutiny for its environmental impact and energy consumption. By positioning himself as an advocate for Bitcoin miners, Trump is appealing to a broad voter base and integrating digital assets into his campaign rhetoric.

Technical analysis for Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin (BTC) has weakened from $71,974 to $65,000 since June 07, 2024, and the current price stands at $66,516. Bitcoin (BTC) might have a hard time holding above the $65,000 level in the upcoming days, and a break below this level would indicate that BTC could test again the price level at $60,000.

Important support & resistance levels for Bitcoin (BTC)

On this chart (the period from January 2024), I marked important support and resistance levels that can help traders understand where the price could move. Bitcoin currently remains under pressure, but if the price advances above $70,000, the next target could be an important resistance level at $75,000. The strong support level is $60,000, and if the price breaks this level, it would be a “SELL” signal, and we have the open way to $55,000. If the price drops below $55,000, which also represents an important support level, the next target could be located around $50,000.

What speaks for the rise in the Bitcoin (BTC) price

Analysts and traders often closely watch the activity of crypto whales because the behavior of crypto whales can influence market sentiment and an increase in the number of big transactions for Bitcoin is something that could drive the price higher. When a whale makes a substantial buy, it can be seen as a bullish sign, potentially attracting more buyers. Positive information is that former U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he would end what he describes as President Joe Biden’s “war on crypto” if re-elected. Donald Trump also emphasized the crucial role of Bitcoin miners in stabilizing the energy grid which is important, especially at a time when the industry is under intense scrutiny for its environmental impact and energy consumption.

What indicates a downfall for Bitcoin (BTC)

The cryptocurrency market has historically been known for its volatility, and while efforts were being made to stabilize the market, fluctuations are still expected to be a common occurrence. Bitcoin has an important support level at $60,000, and a break below this level would indicate that BTC could probably test the next support level which stands at $55,000. At the same time, the macroeconomic landscape remains uncertain; major central banks will continue to keep interest rates at restrictive levels to fight against inflation, and risk-on assets such as cryptocurrencies could suffer again in such conditions.

What do analysts and experts say?

Bitcoin has experienced significant declines in the last several days and crypto analysts agree that the price direction will largely depend on macroeconomic factors and shifts in investor sentiment. The Federal Reserve projected on Wednesday only one rate cut for this year while the political uncertainty in Europe, especially the snap election in France, further strengthened the US dollar which rose to its highest level in over a month and added more selling pressure on Bitcoin.

Popular Bitcoin investor Murad Mahmudov outlined two potential scenarios for Bitcoin in the upcoming weeks and he said that if the price stays above $60,000, the bull market could continue in line with the typical four-year cycle. On the other side, Murad Mahmudov warned that breaking through the $60,000 support levels could lead to further declines and that he would not be surprised to see Bitcoin below $50,000 then. A similar opinion has a trading veteran Peter Brandt who said that a drop below $60,000 might see Bitcoin reaching $48,000.

Disclaimer: Crypto is extremely volatile and not suitable for everyone to invest in. Never speculate with money that you cannot afford to lose. The information on this site is presented for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment or financial advice.