Stellar (XLM) Price Estimate September 2024 – Rise or Fall?

Today, Crypto Lists will discuss Stellar (XLM) price estimates from a technical and fundamental analysis perspective.

XLM has weakened from $0.10 to $0.085 since August 24, 2024, and the current price stands at $0.089. But where is the price of Stellar (sometimes known as Stellar Lumens) going next, and what can we expect from the rest of September 2024?

Please note that there are also many other factors to consider when entering a position, such as your time horizon, willingness to risk, and how much margin you have if trading with leverage.

Wake me up when September ends

Historically, September has been a bearish month for cryptocurrencies and last trading week, weakening demand and increased exchange inflows suggest that many traders are selling to minimize risks, anticipating further price drops. A notable amount of capital has been pulled from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, reflecting waning confidence among investors. For instance, only Fidelity’s Bitcoin ETF saw outflows of $149.9 million in only one day, highlighting a broader trend of withdrawals from riskier assets​.

This sharp decline was driven by weaker-than-expected US job data, which revealed fewer jobs added in August than anticipated. Concerns over a potential economic slowdown led investors to shy away from riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.

Global platform for digital payments

Stellar is a decentralized, open-source blockchain platform for conducting financial operations. It was founded in 2014 by Jed McCaleb, a co-founder of Ripple, leveraging his experience to create a new blockchain platform aimed at facilitating cross-border transactions. Stellar operates using its own consensus mechanism, the Stellar Consensus Protocol (SCP), which allows for quicker and more reliable transaction processing compared to many traditional systems.

Stellar’s primary objective is to build a global platform for digital payments, seamlessly connecting individuals, financial institutions, and payment networks to enable smooth, low-cost transactions across borders. A crucial aspect of Stellar’s functioning is the support for the creation and exchange of “anchor” issuers who process deposits, facilitate asset issuance, and meet the requirements for developers to build products and services using these assets, with a focus on enhancing the end-user experience.

Stellar features its native cryptocurrency, Lumen (XLM), which is used within the network to facilitate transactions, cover fees, and help protect the system from spam by requiring a minimal balance. The price of XLM is usually tied to the overall sentiment on the cryptocurrency market, and like many other cryptocurrencies, XLM lost value after Bitcoin weakened from its record highs. Not long ago, XLM was trading above $0.16 ( March 11, 2024), but since then XLM has significantly lost in value, and according to the current market situation, the risk of further decline is still not over.

The risk of further decline is still not over

Historically, September has been a bearish period for cryptocurrencies, and last week is no exception. Weakened demand, coupled with rising exchange inflows, indicates that many traders are offloading assets to mitigate potential risks. Many crypto analysts say that it is yet uncertain whether Bitcoin will continue to trade above $50,000 amid the ongoing sell-off but what is for sure is that the prices of many cryptocurrencies including XLM will decrease in value even more if Bitcoin falls again below $50,000.

At the same time, weaker-than-expected US job data on Friday and concerns over a potential economic slowdown led investors to shy away from riskier assets like cryptocurrencies. The broader market is grappling with economic uncertainty and wavering investor confidence. With weak job numbers and ongoing macroeconomic concerns, the crypto market’s volatility may persist, and further declines are possible if the economic outlook doesn’t improve soon.

Significant ETF outflows

It is important to mention that on Friday the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced significant outflows of $211.15 million, marking the ninth consecutive day of negative fund movements. Fidelity’s FBTC led the decline with $149.49 million in withdrawals, followed by Bitwise’s BITB ($30 million) and Grayscale’s GBTC ($23.22 million). The daily trading volume for Bitcoin ETFs dropped to $1.35 billion.

A slowdown in net inflows is certainly a negative factor for XLM that will continue to influence the price of this cryptocurrency in the weeks ahead. XLM is a highly risky investment and investors should consider that XLM can be subject to speculative trading, and speculative traders may take advantage of a broader market downturn and sell off their altcoin holdings, including XLM, contributing to its price decrease.

Technical analysis for Stellar (XLM)

Stellar (XLM) has weakened from $0.10 to $0.085 since August 24, 2024, and the current price stands at $0.089. The risk of further decline is still not over and in the weeks ahead, the price of XLM could continue to be under selling pressure. In the chart below, I marked the important resistance level, and as long the price of XLM is below this level, we can’t talk about a trend reversal, and the price of XLM remains in the SELL-ZONE.

Important support & resistance levels for Stellar (XLM)

On this chart (the period from January 2024), I marked important support and resistance levels that can help traders understand where the price could move. XLM remains under pressure, but if the price advances above $0.10, the next target could be an important resistance level at $0.11. The strong support level is $0.080, and if the price breaks this level, it would be a “SELL” signal, and we have the open way to $0.070.

What speaks for the rise in the Stellar (XLM) price

Stellar has established partnerships with major financial institutions and blockchain projects, including IBM, which uses the Stellar network for its World Wire payment system. As more organizations adopt Stellar for cross-border payments and tokenization, demand for XLM could rise, pushing its price higher. Investors should also consider that the overall sentiment on the cryptocurrency market can play a crucial role in XLM’s price trajectory. If investors regain confidence and the market recovers from recent setbacks, an upside potential could benefit XLM and other cryptocurrencies.

What indicates the downfall of Stellar (XLM)

The downfall of XLM can be influenced by a wide range of factors, including negative news around this project, market sentiment, regulatory developments, macroeconomic trends, and more. The period since March 11, 2024, has been negative for XLM, and the bearish mood among XLM whales seems to be a major factor that influenced the XLM price downtrend. The strong support level for XLM stands at $0.08, and if the price falls below this level, the next target could be $0.07. The price of XLM is usually correlated with the price of Bitcoin, and if the price of Bitcoin drops below the $50000 price level, that would certainly have a negative influence on the price of XLM.

What do analysts and experts say?

Like many cryptocurrencies, XLM is influenced by overall market sentiment and many crypto analysts say that we could see even lower prices for XLM in the upcoming weeks. Last week, the cryptocurrency market experienced a significant decline and a notable amount of capital has been pulled from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, reflecting waning confidence among investors. According to crypto analysts, weaker-than-expected US job data that was released on Friday and concerns over a potential economic slowdown led investors to shy away from riskier assets like cryptocurrencies. Crypto analysts agree that if the XLM trading volume continues to fall, then the selling pressure can push the price toward new lows.